Needham Sees Rebound After U.S. Greenlights H20 Exports
Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton has reaffirmed a Buy rating on Nvidia and raised the stock’s price target from $160 to $200, citing renewed optimism over the company’s GPU sales to China. The revision follows U.S. government approval of export license filings, allowing Nvidia to resume shipments of its H20 GPUs. These shipments were previously halted due to export restrictions, which had impacted nearly $10.5 billion in planned sales for fiscal 2026.
According to Bolton, Nvidia had already secured $4.6 billion in H20 revenue before the export restrictions were enforced and recorded a $4.5 billion inventory-related charge last quarter. With the recent regulatory shift, Bolton now estimates $3 billion in quarterly H20 shipments going forward, potentially generating near-total gross margin on previously written-down inventory.
Blackwell GPU Variants Offer Additional Upside
Bolton also highlighted Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPU variants tailored for the Chinese market, specifically the B30 and B40/RTX 6000D models. These chips, designed to comply with export limitations, are priced between $6,500 and $8,000 — below the $10,000 to $12,000 range of the H20. With performance estimated at 75% of the H20, demand for these variants is already robust, with over $1 billion in orders placed ahead of anticipated volume shipments in late summer.
This product strategy is expected to cushion Nvidia’s Chinese market presence and open up new revenue streams. The company’s ability to quickly pivot its offerings in response to geopolitical constraints is seen as a competitive strength, especially in the high-stakes data center GPU segment.
Revenue and EPS Estimates Recalibrated Upward
Reflecting the renewed shipments and demand prospects, Bolton raised Nvidia’s fiscal third and fourth quarter 2026 revenue estimates by $4 billion each. He now forecasts fiscal 2026 revenue at $202.6 billion and EPS at $4.42, up from prior estimates of $194.6 billion and $4.17. Fiscal 2027 projections were raised to $265 billion in revenue and $6.20 in EPS, while new estimates for fiscal 2028 were introduced: $315 billion in revenue and EPS of $7.25, with $20 billion expected from China-based data center GPU sales.
These aggressive revisions underscore expectations that Nvidia can both recapture lost business and grow its market share, even amid regulatory hurdles. Bolton emphasized the company’s continued alignment with Chinese tech firms and its adaptive innovation as key growth drivers moving forward.
Market Response and Analyst Sentiment
Despite the bullish forecast, Nvidia shares dipped 0.40% to $170.02 in recent trading. Nonetheless, Needham’s revised outlook reinforces the belief that Nvidia remains a dominant force in the GPU market, well-positioned to navigate export restrictions and geopolitical uncertainty. The analyst’s optimistic stance comes amid broader enthusiasm for AI-related hardware, which continues to be a core driver of the company’s valuation.
