U.S. tariff cut offers clarity, not comfort
The recent U.S.–Japan trade agreement has reduced auto import tariffs from 25% to 15%, giving Japanese automakers a measure of relief. However, analysts caution that the lower rate, while avoiding worse outcomes, still imposes considerable pressure on the industry. Many had anticipated a softer tariff policy, and the current level remains far above historic norms.
Though this new rate brings some certainty to Japanese manufacturers, it’s not enough to counteract the deeper problems threatening Japan’s automotive dominance worldwide.
China’s rapid rise shifts global dynamics
Chinese automakers are gaining significant ground, eroding Japan’s lead in key global markets. Once a lucrative territory for Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, China is now exporting aggressively and challenging Japanese brands across Southeast Asia and Australia. Electric vehicles (EVs) and critical components developed in China are reshaping the competitive landscape, pushing Japanese automakers into defensive positions.
PwC reports a decline in Japanese automakers’ share across the ASEAN-6 region from 68.2% in 2023 to 63.9% in 2024. Australia’s future also looks dim for Japan’s car industry, with projections suggesting China will dominate 43% of imports by 2035, compared to Japan’s forecasted 22%.
Domestic headwinds and restructuring pain
Beyond international pressures, Japan’s carmakers face economic hurdles at home. Inflation and muted consumer spending are denting demand, while legacy issues weigh on firms like Nissan. The company plans to shut down seven of its 17 plants and cut around 15% of its global workforce by 2027 as part of a major restructuring initiative.
Smaller players such as Mazda and Subaru are also feeling the squeeze. Though they benefit from partnerships with Toyota, including joint EV production plans, analysts see long-term consolidation as a likely path forward for survival.
Clarity helps, but competition remains fierce
While the new U.S. tariff level brings some pricing visibility, analysts warn that Japanese automakers must also factor in their standing relative to other global exporters like Korea, Mexico, and Canada. Competitive pressures could still dampen profitability, especially if those countries negotiate better terms with Washington.
In the face of Chinese expansion and evolving global preferences for EVs, Japan’s car industry is entering a critical phase. Toyota may have the scale and resilience to adapt, but others must accelerate transformation or risk becoming irrelevant in the decade ahead.
