Gold prices opened higher on Monday as investors awaited signals from the Federal Reserve. Futures gained 1.4% compared to Friday’s close, reflecting growing attention to economic data and monetary policy ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Market performance
Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $3,382.40 per ounce, up from Friday’s $3,336. Over August, prices have ranged between $3,281 and $3,477. The current level is nearly flat compared to one week earlier but 1.3% above last month’s opening. Year over year, gold has surged 37.9% from $2,453.50 in August 2024.
Fed policy impact
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to provide guidance on interest rate policy at Jackson Hole. President Donald Trump has urged for lower rates, but Powell has emphasized caution. Slowing labor markets and inflation above 2% have fueled speculation about a September rate cut. Lower interest rates typically support gold since the metal offers no yield but attracts safe-haven demand in uncertain conditions.
Long-term price cycles
Gold has historically moved in extended cycles. After climbing strongly from 2009 to 2011, it entered nearly a decade of stagnation before resuming an upward trend. Investors weighing exposure must consider both its high-growth phases and quieter years. Allocation choices depend on tolerance for volatility and long-term strategy.
Outlook for 2025
Analysts remain optimistic about gold. Goldman Sachs Research forecast in May that prices could reach $3,700 by the end of 2025, a 40% gain from the year’s opening. Factors supporting this view include central bank demand and policy uncertainty around U.S. tariffs. If confirmed, the rally would mark one of gold’s strongest annual performances in over a decade.
