Investor fears over Fed independence
U.S. bond markets are bracing for fallout after President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Trump’s move—sparked by contested claims over past mortgages—has triggered alarm among investors who worry it could undermine the central bank’s independence and shift policy in a dangerously dovish direction. Cook denies the accusations and has announced plans to fight the dismissal in court.
If successful, the effort would give Trump appointees a majority on the Fed board, likely affecting future monetary policy. Analysts warn that such a shift may lead to premature rate cuts, risking a loss of inflation control and hurting long-term bond confidence.
Bond yields reflect deepening concerns
Markets responded cautiously, with benchmark 10-year Treasury yields holding at 4.27%. Short-term yields fell on expectations of easier monetary policy, while long-term yields rose on inflation fears—steepening the yield curve. The 2- to 10-year yield spread hit its highest since April, and the 30-year to 2-year spread reached early 2022 levels.
“A more dovish Fed board could lead to looser-than-needed policy,” said John Madziyire of Vanguard. “That drives up inflation expectations and raises long-term rates.” Tim Graf of State Street noted that, absent political pressures, 10-year yields would likely be below 4%.
Legal and fiscal implications in focus
Legal experts expect a prolonged court battle, but markets are already pricing in the risk. Analysts at BMO Capital say the pressure on the Fed’s independence could steepen the curve further by pushing term premiums higher. With inflation still above the 2% target and the labor market weakening, excessive rate cuts could backfire.
“The bond market will punish the Fed for cutting at the wrong time,” said Tim Urbanowicz of Innovator Capital Management. Rising concerns over fiscal dominance—where governments push central banks to prioritize debt financing—are adding to investor anxiety.
Global warnings and inflation risks
The Bank for International Settlements reinforced calls for protecting central bank autonomy. Gilles Moec, AXA’s chief economist, warned that using inflation to erode government debt could prove counterproductive. “It may lower debt in the short term but would result in higher long-term rates,” he said.
As Trump’s challenge to the Fed unfolds, markets remain on edge. A politicized central bank may fuel inflation fears, hurt bond performance, and weaken investor trust in the stability of U.S. monetary policy.
