Domestic strength offsets global economic uncertainty
JPMorgan Chase has labeled India a “bright spot” amid a tough global environment, citing the country’s robust internal growth and low reliance on exports. Speaking from Mumbai, Sjoerd Leenart, the bank’s Asia Pacific head, acknowledged trade and immigration tensions with the U.S. but remained optimistic. “India has a strong hand to play,” he told Bloomberg Television during JPMorgan’s annual India conference.
The comments come as India faces rising trade tensions, particularly from the U.S., which has imposed significant tariffs on Indian exports and increased scrutiny over H-1B visas. Despite these challenges, JPMorgan sees India’s fundamentals as resilient and poised to weather external shocks effectively.
Tariffs and H-1B policies threaten key export sectors
India exports around $86.5 billion in goods to the U.S. annually, but a majority of these exports now face steep tariffs. According to Global Trade Research Initiative founder Ajay Srivastava, $60.2 billion worth of goods are now subject to a 50% duty, and another $3.4 billion in auto parts face a 25% levy. Only $27.6 billion in goods, including pharmaceuticals and electronics, remain duty-free.
The fallout could be severe. Srivastava warns exports from affected sectors could fall by 70%, reducing total shipments to the U.S. by 43% and risking hundreds of thousands of jobs in India’s export hubs. Tensions worsened when former U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a $100,000 fee for new H-1B visa applications. Indians make up over 70% of H-1B holders.
Visa changes challenge India’s tech talent pipeline
While the fee does not affect current visa holders, concerns remain about its long-term impact on Indian talent migration. Leenart acknowledged that JPMorgan depends heavily on India’s skilled workforce but declined to speculate on how visa policy changes might influence its operations.
U.S. firms may find themselves facing higher labor costs. The push to limit foreign workers could accelerate the expansion of global capability centers in India, as companies seek to retain access to affordable, high-quality talent.
JPMorgan expands operations and eyes IPO surge
JPMorgan has increased its India headcount by 20% over the last two years, expanding its footprint in investment banking, corporate banking, custody services, and more. The bank’s tech and business operations centers in Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad now employ over 55,000 people.
Anu Aiyengar, JPMorgan’s global head of advisory and M&A, revealed that the firm is preparing more IPOs in India than in any other market. “This is a growing market,” she said, predicting that this year’s IPO volume could surpass last year’s. India is emerging as one of the world’s most dynamic listing environments, with a pipeline that underscores investor confidence despite global headwinds.
