Investor demand and debt risks reshape projections
JPMorgan has raised its long-term gold price target to $3,850 per ounce — an 80% increase from its previous estimate. This revision comes as the global economic environment, dominated by rising debt levels and central bank activity, calls for a new approach to gold valuation.
The bank highlights a surge in gold demand, noting that prices have already climbed over 50% year-to-date. Analysts say this reflects a shift in investor behavior, with growing diversification into hard assets and stronger interest from institutions.
New model blends traditional and alternative signals
JPMorgan’s revised outlook incorporates a hybrid valuation model. It factors in marginal production costs, pricing trends in royalty deals, parallels to historic currency regime shifts, investor flows, and gold’s emerging role as a strategic store of wealth.
These inputs suggest a structural revaluation of gold is underway. The model’s lower-bound range, based on conservative assumptions, places support between $1,800 and $2,500. But in higher-risk environments, prices could reach between $6,000 and $9,000 per ounce.
Historical trends and global reallocation drive upside
JPMorgan’s analysts drew comparisons with the 1930s and 1970s, when gold surged nearly 90% during shifts in global reserve systems. They estimate that if just 0.5% of non-U.S. investors’ holdings in American assets were redirected into gold, prices could climb to $6,000 by 2029.
The report underscores that gold’s appeal as a hedge against growing U.S. debt is central to its revised projection. In extreme debt-driven scenarios, the implied fair value of gold could exceed $9,000 per ounce.
Mining stocks seen as high-upside beneficiaries
The bank continues to favor gold miners, estimating over 50% upside in their fair value by December 2027. AngloGold Ashanti was named JPMorgan’s top pick in the EMEA region, citing attractive valuation, buyback potential, and Nevada expansion.
Fresnillo also holds a strong overweight rating due to its silver leverage and potential for revaluation. Analysts resumed coverage on Gold Fields with a positive watch ahead of its November Capital Markets Day.
