Three-year commitment aims to restore lost trade ties
China has committed to return its U.S. soybean purchases to regular levels over the next three years, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Thursday. The move follows a sharp decline in Chinese imports amid President Trump’s ongoing trade conflict with Beijing, which had disrupted one of America’s most vital agricultural exports.
Speaking to Fox Business, Bessent said China will purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans this season and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. That figure aligns with historical averages and marks a major step toward repairing trade flows that were significantly disrupted earlier this year.
Farmers impacted by trade war see hope for recovery
Soybeans had become a central battleground in the trade war, with U.S. farmers facing plummeting exports as China halted purchases. Last year, China imported $13 billion worth of American soybeans, but imports dropped steeply in 2025, forcing farmers to rely on domestic markets or explore alternative buyers.
Tensions intensified when the U.S. bailed out Argentina, which then sold large quantities of soybeans to China, prompting backlash from U.S. agriculture groups and lawmakers. Calls for a domestic bailout remain unresolved.
Beijing’s pledge may exceed official targets
According to Bessent, the current agreement could be just the beginning. “What I would expect is, as President Trump did in 2020, after President Xi had agreed to the phase one deal, he called him regularly and got him to buy more,” he said. “That number went up much higher.” Between 2019 and 2020, China’s soybean imports from the U.S. surged over 50%, reaching more than 34 million metric tons, per USDA data.
After peaking in 2020, imports declined to around 26 million metric tons before collapsing in 2025. Bessent’s remarks suggest a strong potential for future growth beyond the agreed minimums, depending on diplomatic engagement and market conditions.
Market reaction shows cautious optimism
Soybean futures initially fell on uncertainty surrounding the trade agreement but recovered following Bessent’s disclosure of the 25 million metric ton figure. Analysts noted that while the pledge is a positive sign, implementation and follow-through will be closely watched.
The new trade commitments could offer critical relief to U.S. farmers and may help stabilize global commodity markets. However, as past disruptions have shown, geopolitical tensions remain a persistent risk in agricultural trade between the two countries.
