Continuing claims rise sharply after shutdown delays data
New government figures showed a notable increase in the number of Americans receiving jobless benefits between mid September and mid October. The Labor Department released only partial continuing claims data for the weeks ending October 11 and 18, as a technical issue led to an early posting. Full data is expected by November 20. The release marks the first unemployment-related update since the end of the 43 day government shutdown, which halted routine reporting.
Continuing claims climbed to 1.957 million in the week ending October 18, up from 1.916 million during the September survey week. The jump suggests an elevated unemployment rate for October and aligns with softer hiring trends. Separate data from ADP showed private employers shed roughly 2,500 jobs a week through early November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the delayed September employment report on Thursday, while September’s producer price data is slated for release next week.
Economists see mixed signals ahead of delayed October data
The White House has warned that the October unemployment rate will likely not be published because the shutdown prevented household data collection. Even so, first time jobless claims did not rise between the September and October payroll survey periods, which some analysts view as a sign of stability. Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said the figures offer no evidence that layoffs accelerated during the shutdown, a point he believes should reassure markets and temper expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
The unemployment rate stood near a four year high of 4.3 percent in August. Fed officials have signaled reluctance to cut rates again next month as policymakers navigate incomplete data and an uncertain economic backdrop.
Weak labor conditions weigh on housing sentiment
Lingering labor market softness is rippling into the housing sector, with homebuilder confidence remaining subdued for the nineteenth straight month. The National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo index ticked up to 38 in November, slightly above expectations, but still signaling strained demand. Analysts noted that elevated mortgage rates and still high home prices continue to limit new home sales potential.
Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a more meaningful housing recovery may not take hold until mid 2026, when lower mortgage rates could pair with stronger growth and gradual labor market improvement. Affordability pressures have become a political flashpoint. President Donald Trump recently floated the idea of a 50 year mortgage to ease costs, a proposal that drew criticism from both housing experts and some supporters, who argued it would inflate interest paid over time and slow equity building.
Builders rely on incentives as buyers hesitate
Current sales conditions edged up to 41, but the index tracking future sales slipped to 51. Buyer traffic rose slightly to 26. Forty one percent of builders reported cutting prices, the highest share since May 2020, with average reductions steady at six percent. Sixty five percent used incentives to close deals. NAHB chairman Buddy Hughes said many potential buyers remain hesitant despite incentives, reflecting a market constrained by borrowing costs and weaker household finances.
