Meat costs lead expected increases
Food prices in Canada are projected to rise between 4% and 6% next year, according to the latest Food Price Report from Dalhousie University. The biggest driver will be meat, especially beef, which could increase by up to 7% as cattle herds shrink and more ranchers exit the industry. Trade pressures and tariff risks are adding further volatility to beef markets.
Researchers warn that tight supply conditions may persist until 2027. To mitigate shortages, Canada is increasing beef imports, though consumers are still likely to feel the impact at the checkout.
Chicken and pantry items also getting pricier
With many shoppers shifting from beef to chicken in search of savings, poultry prices are now rising as well. “The entire category will be more expensive,” said Sylvain Charlebois, director of Dalhousie’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab.
Even goods traditionally viewed as inflation-safe — canned items and pantry staples — are expected to climb after years of price stability. Analysts say Canadians will no longer find the centre aisles of grocery stores to be a budget refuge in 2026.
Trade dispute and economic pressures add strain
Several factors could push grocery bills higher in the coming months, including the ongoing trade dispute with the United States, shifts in food manufacturing capacity and labour-related cost pressures affecting supply chains nationwide.
Food insecurity reaches record levels
Nearly one in four Canadians now lives in a food-insecure household, according to Food Banks Canada. The situation is particularly severe in Toronto, where the Daily Bread Food Bank serves about 330,000 clients per month — compared with only 60,000 before the pandemic.
“We’re not adding more food, we’re seeing more clients,” said CEO Neil Hetherington, noting that volunteer support has surged but demand continues to outpace donations.
For many households, protein is becoming a luxury. “I think I might buy meat less often and make it a weekend thing,” said Toronto resident Sabra Al-Harthi. Another shopper, Giacomo LoGiacco, described cutting back to bare essentials despite working full time: “Milk, eggs and bread — that’s it.”
