Cocoa plunges, store prices climb
Cocoa prices have tumbled nearly 70% since last Valentine’s Day, yet shoppers won’t see cheaper heart-shaped boxes or Easter bunnies this year. Retail data shows chocolate prices in the U.S. rose 14% between Jan. 1 and early February compared with the same stretch a year earlier. That follows a 7.8% increase during the same period in 2025.
In Europe, price pressures have been even sharper. Germany recorded an 18.9% jump in chocolate prices in 2025, according to official figures. The disconnect between falling cocoa futures and rising retail prices has left many consumers puzzled.
Weather shocks and demand shifts
Cocoa prices more than doubled in 2024 after insufficient rainfall and crop diseases battered West Africa, the source of over 70% of global cocoa supply. Ivory Coast and Ghana were hit especially hard, disrupting harvests and squeezing global inventories.
Production has since improved as weather conditions stabilized in West Africa and output expanded in Ecuador and other producing nations. That recovery in supply has weighed on cocoa futures.
At the same time, global demand has cooled. As chocolate became more expensive, consumers scaled back purchases. In the U.S., annual retail chocolate sales rose 6.7% in 2025 largely due to higher prices, but unit sales fell 1.3%, indicating people bought fewer items overall. Some manufacturers reduced cocoa content or shifted focus to alternatives such as gummy candies to manage costs and maintain margins.
Tariffs and long-term contracts
Trade policy also played a role. The U.S. imposed tariffs averaging 15% last February on cocoa-producing countries, increasing import costs. Although tariffs on certain commodities were later removed, duties of 15% or more remain on chocolates imported from the European Union.
Even as cocoa prices fall, manufacturers often remain locked into long-term supply contracts negotiated when costs were higher. Similar to gasoline markets, retail prices do not adjust immediately because companies must work through existing inventories purchased at elevated rates.
Producers also remain cautious in a volatile market. Poor weather or renewed demand could quickly reverse cocoa’s decline, encouraging companies to maintain price levels where consumers have shown willingness to pay.
Consumers trade up and down
Interestingly, two ends of the market gained ground in 2025: value brands and super-premium chocolate. Budget-conscious shoppers traded down to store brands, while others upgraded to higher-end offerings, seeing only a modest price gap as mainstream brands raised prices aggressively.
Companies such as Mondelez increased global prices by 8% to offset cocoa costs, though in parts of Europe they later eased prices after seeing sales volumes fall sharply. In North America, where volume declines were milder, immediate price reductions are not expected.
For now, while cocoa futures have retreated dramatically, shoppers are unlikely to see meaningful relief at the checkout aisle. Pricing decisions reflect contracts, tariffs, supply risks and consumer behavior just as much as the raw commodity chart.
