Fresh attacks on the UAE push crude higher again
Oil prices moved sharply higher on Tuesday as traders reacted to renewed Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates and growing signs that disruption in the Gulf could last longer than initially expected. Brent crude settled at $103.42 a barrel, up 3.2 percent on the day, while US West Texas Intermediate closed at $96.21, a gain of 2.9 percent. The move returned the focus of the market to physical supply risk after a brief pullback earlier in the week.
The latest gains reflect a market that remains highly sensitive to any sign of further damage around the Strait of Hormuz and nearby export infrastructure. Although oil did not revisit the near $120 spike seen earlier in March, prices remain elevated because traders increasingly see the conflict not as a short-lived shock, but as a disruption with the potential to impair supply for weeks or longer. The war has now entered its third week, and the absence of any clear de-escalation path is helping keep a firm risk premium in crude futures.
What changed on Tuesday was the perception that even alternative export channels may no longer offer meaningful relief. That has made the market less willing to assume that partial tanker movements through the region are enough to normalize flows in the near term.
Fujairah disruption adds pressure beyond the strait
The immediate trigger for the rally was a renewed attack on the UAE that affected loading operations at Fujairah, a critical oil export point on the Gulf of Oman just outside the Strait of Hormuz. The latest strike, the third in four days, caused a fire at the terminal and at least partially halted activity. Fujairah matters because it provides one of the region’s most important workarounds to the strait itself, making any disruption there especially significant for global supply expectations.
The port handles volumes equivalent to roughly 1 percent of world demand, and its role has become more important as shipping through Hormuz has been constrained. With Fujairah impaired and the strait still effectively restricted, the UAE has reportedly been forced to cut crude production by more than half. That is a major development because the country is OPEC’s third-largest producer and one of the few exporters often seen as able to provide stability during supply shocks.
The result is a market increasingly worried not only about what is blocked today, but about how much spare flexibility remains if attacks continue. Middle East crude benchmarks have already surged to record highs, reflecting both the scarcity of prompt barrels and the premium buyers are willing to pay for reliable delivery. In that sense, the latest price jump was not simply a reaction to headlines. It was a recognition that available export routes are narrowing.
Allies refuse military role as traders price a longer crisis
The supply story is being reinforced by the political one. Several US allies have rejected President Donald Trump’s call to send warships to escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the prospect of a broad multinational effort to restore normal transit quickly. Germany has made clear it does not see the conflict as its war, while France has said it would not take part in operations to reopen the waterway during active hostilities. That leaves markets with fewer reasons to expect a rapid security solution.
At the same time, the White House has pointed to some limited tanker movement through the strait, with adviser Kevin Hassett saying vessels are beginning to pass again. That helped trigger the previous session’s pullback, when Brent and WTI both fell after reports that some ships were getting through. But Tuesday’s rebound showed how fragile that optimism remains. A handful of crossings is not the same as a stable restoration of flows, particularly when attacks continue to hit infrastructure around the chokepoint.
Analysts increasingly argue that even intermittent disruption can keep prices supported if market participants believe every tanker transit still carries a serious security risk. In such an environment, it only takes one mine, missile strike or militia attack to send prices sharply higher again. That is why volatility remains intense even on days when no single event appears to change the entire strategic picture.
Strategic reserves may become part of the next response
The next question is whether governments move beyond monitoring and begin offsetting the disruption more aggressively. The head of the International Energy Agency has suggested member countries could release additional oil beyond the 400 million barrels already approved from strategic reserves. That option is designed to cushion the immediate impact of supply losses, but it cannot fully replace secure export capacity from the Gulf if the conflict drags on.
Technical analysts are also warning that the market may have more upside if disruption persists into the end of March. Some see medium-term resistance in WTI near $124 a barrel, a level that would imply a much broader repricing of energy risk across inflation expectations, shipping costs and central bank forecasts. Whether prices move that far will depend on physical flows, not just military rhetoric.
For now, the direction of the market remains tied to one central fact: the world’s most important oil chokepoint is still unstable, and one of the region’s key backup export routes is under attack. Until those conditions change, crude is likely to remain supported at elevated levels, with each new strike or shipping incident reminding traders how quickly the supply outlook can worsen.
