Referendum defeat weakens a prime minister who had seemed politically untouchable
Italian voters have rejected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s proposed overhaul of the judiciary, handing her government its most significant political setback since taking office. In the two-day referendum, nearly 54 percent voted against the reform, while about 46 percent supported it. The result blocks a constitutional change that Meloni had framed as a major institutional correction and immediately raises questions about how much authority she still has to push through the rest of her agenda.
The defeat matters not only because of the legal substance of the proposal, but because of what it says about Meloni’s political position. Since becoming prime minister in October 2022, she has cultivated an image of durability and control that has stood out in a country long associated with unstable governments and fragmented coalitions. Her party, Brothers of Italy, still leads in polls, and she has maintained strong visibility both at home and abroad. But referendum defeats can have a different kind of impact. They turn an abstract sense of momentum into a measurable public verdict, and this one has gone against her.
The scale of turnout made the setback more serious. Participation reached 58.5 percent, a level that far exceeded expectations and prevented the government from dismissing the vote as a low-interest institutional exercise. The result was especially damaging among younger voters, who were a decisive factor in the No victory despite Meloni’s late campaign effort to connect with them through unconventional media appearances.
The reform became a political test, not just a legal one
The proposed changes were technical and constitutional in nature, but the campaign itself was far more political than legal. Meloni and her ministers had repeatedly attacked the judiciary in recent months, portraying parts of it as obstructive and ideologically hostile. As a result, the referendum increasingly came to be seen not simply as a debate over institutional design, but as a broader contest over the balance of power between the elected government and the courts.
That dynamic helped mobilize opposition beyond legal specialists. Voters were being asked to decide on a reform with complex implications for the postwar constitutional order, but they were also reacting to the tone of the government’s campaign. For many, the referendum became less about the fine structure of the judiciary and more about whether Meloni should be trusted with a sensitive constitutional rewrite.
The fact that she lost that test is politically costly. A leader can survive one defeat, but once a government that seemed invulnerable begins to lose major votes, perceptions change. Opponents become bolder, allies become more cautious and voters begin to see limits where they previously saw only control.
The loss may block other constitutional ambitions
The immediate consequence is that Meloni’s broader institutional plans will become harder to advance. The government had hoped to use the judiciary reform as part of a larger push to reshape the political system, including changes to the electoral framework and a controversial project to allow voters to elect the prime minister directly. That latter proposal has been one of Meloni’s most important long-term ambitions, but the referendum defeat now weakens the political leverage she needed to keep it moving.
Constitutional projects depend not only on parliamentary arithmetic, but also on momentum and legitimacy. A prime minister who has just lost a popular vote on one major reform finds it much harder to persuade the public and the political class to accept another. The setback therefore does more than stop one measure. It interrupts a broader attempt to redefine the institutional shape of the Italian state under Meloni’s leadership.
This comes at a delicate time. Italy is also facing higher living costs linked to the widening conflict in the Middle East, and that economic pressure risks making any government appear more vulnerable. Meloni’s close political and ideological alignment with Donald Trump may also become more difficult to manage domestically if Italian voters continue to view the war and its economic consequences negatively.
The opposition has been handed a real opening
The biggest winner from the referendum is the opposition, which had largely backed the No campaign and now has a concrete example of Meloni being defeated on terrain she personally chose. For parties that have often struggled to build a coherent alternative to her coalition, the result offers something important: proof that she can be stopped, and that the electorate is not automatically prepared to endorse every institutional battle she initiates.
That does not mean the opposition is suddenly united or ready to govern. Meloni’s party remains the strongest single force in Italian politics, and one referendum loss does not erase the structural advantages her coalition still enjoys. But politics often changes not through one dramatic collapse, but through smaller moments that alter the atmosphere. This vote may be one of those moments.
Meloni responded by saying Italians had decided and that her government would respect the outcome. That was the only viable response. But respect does not erase the meaning of the result. She is still prime minister, and still powerful, yet she is no longer carrying the same aura of inevitability. In politics, that kind of damage can matter as much as the formal loss itself. What voters rejected was not only a reform of the judiciary. They also sent a signal that Meloni’s authority has limits, and that signal will shape every major confrontation that comes next.
