The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the closest races for the White House in the last 60 years. After the September 10 debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, polling indicates that while Vice President Harris has a slight national lead over Trump, the race remains within the margin of error, particularly when considering the all-important Electoral College.
Recent polling from CBS News and NBC News shows Harris leading by 4 to 5 points, her strongest performance in national surveys to date. Despite this, her edge is far smaller than Democratic candidates in previous elections. A CNN Poll of Polls averages Harris’ lead at 3 points, highlighting that neither candidate has broken away from the other significantly this cycle.
Historically, it’s rare for presidential races to remain this tight throughout the campaign season. Most elections see at least one candidate pulling ahead by 5 points or more. The last time polling remained this close was during the 1960 campaign. Even Harris’ standout debate performance has done little to give her a decisive advantage.
But the national polling only tells part of the story. The race for 270 electoral votes, where the real contest lies, shows Trump and Harris neck-and-neck. CNN’s current analysis gives Harris 225 electoral votes and Trump 219, with seven states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District still up for grabs.
Harris is slightly outperforming Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—key northern battleground states—by around 2 points. However, Trump is doing marginally better in Arizona and Georgia. Both candidates are within striking distance in these crucial states, making the election too close to call.
If the election were held today and each candidate claimed states where they hold a slim polling advantage, Harris would win 269 electoral votes to Trump’s 246. North Carolina and Nevada are particularly close, with Harris holding a razor-thin lead in the latter.
Nebraska’s 2nd District could prove pivotal, as a Harris win there would likely push her to exactly 270 electoral votes. However, if Nebraska Republicans push through a last-minute rule change that alters how electoral votes are allocated, it could deny Harris a key win and leave the election to be decided in Nevada, where the race is a statistical tie.
In the event of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, the decision would go to the US House of Representatives, where Trump would likely have the advantage, given Republicans’ expected hold over more state delegations.
As election day nears, it’s clear that even the smallest shifts in polling or turnout could swing the race. With both candidates fighting for every vote in key battlegrounds, the 2024 election is set to be a nail-biter right down to the wire.
