U.S. crude oil prices are on track for their third consecutive monthly decline in September, pressured by rising supplies from OPEC+ and a drop in demand from China, the world’s largest crude importer. Despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices have continued to slide, with the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling over 7% this month, and global benchmark Brent crude declining by around 9%.
The losses come as OPEC+ prepares to increase production in December, with analysts expecting further market loosening next year. “Oil markets are experiencing a panic attack,” said Amarpreet Singh, energy analyst at Barclays, in a note to clients on Friday. However, Singh added that the concerns driving this sell-off are “likely overdone.”
Barclays forecasts Brent crude to average $85 per barrel in 2025.
Here are Monday’s key energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate (November contract): $68.23 per barrel, a gain of 5 cents or 0.07%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil prices have dropped by nearly 5%.
- Brent (November contract): $71.69 per barrel, a drop of 29 cents or 0.4%. Year to date, Brent has fallen nearly 7%.
- RBOB Gasoline (October contract): $1.954 per gallon, an increase of 0.05%. Year to date, gasoline has pulled back by about 7%.
- Natural Gas (November contract): $2.896 per thousand cubic feet, a decrease of 0.21%. Year to date, natural gas has gained approximately 16%.
Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with Israel recently killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike in Beirut, oil prices have remained relatively unresponsive to geopolitical risks. Analysts believe that the market is focusing more on potential increases in oil supply from Libya and Saudi Arabia.
Daan Struyven, head oil analyst at Goldman Sachs, explained to clients in a Sunday note, “This price action reflects that the geopolitical risk premium remains limited, given market expectations of potentially higher oil supply.”
