Moscow is pivoting to safeguard its strategic military assets in Syria and establish relations with the country’s new rebel leadership after the unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Securing Military Bases
Russia’s critical military infrastructure in Syria includes the Khmeimim Airbase in the northwest and the Tartus Naval Facility on the Mediterranean. These bases are essential for Moscow, offering a staging post for global military operations and access to a warm water port.
Following Assad’s escape to Moscow, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is taking all “necessary steps” to secure its bases. Syrian opposition leaders have reportedly agreed to ensure the safety of these facilities.
Strategic Diplomacy
In a striking shift, Russian officials and state media have softened their stance toward Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that led the uprising against Assad. HTS, previously labeled as “terrorists,” is now referred to as “armed opposition.”
This diplomatic overture extends to the Syrian embassy in Moscow, which raised the rebel flag and issued statements aligning with the new leadership.
Parallels with Afghanistan
Experts suggest Moscow could replicate its strategy with the Taliban, where a terrorist-designated group later became a negotiating partner after seizing power. Observers note that Moscow prioritizes engaging with those in control, sidelining leaders who have lost influence.
Blame and Fallout
Russian narratives have placed significant blame on Assad for his downfall, portraying him as a failed leader. Pro-Russian media contrasted his flight with other leaders who faced similar crises, further diminishing his relevance.
Future of Russian Influence
While the Kremlin is keen to preserve its foothold in Syria, the success of its strategy will depend on negotiations with the new Syrian leadership. Analysts emphasize that Russia’s leverage includes financial aid, oil and gas resources, and military assistance.
Moscow’s evolving approach underscores its adaptability in maintaining influence amidst shifting power dynamics in the Middle East.
