Key Takeaways:
- Trump will not impose immediate tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico but will direct federal agencies to review trade relationships with these countries.
- The decision eased market concerns, leading to a stock market rally and a drop in the U.S. dollar.
- The memo will scrutinize China’s compliance with the 2020 trade deal and assess the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
- Future tariffs are still likely, as Trump remains committed to reducing the $1 trillion trade deficit.
What Happened
U.S. President Donald Trump is set to sign a trade policy memo on Monday, directing federal agencies to evaluate trade relationships with China, Canada, and Mexico. This move stops short of imposing immediate tariffs, despite prior campaign promises of steep trade penalties.
The announcement led to a relief rally in global stocks and a decline in the U.S. dollar. However, Trump remains focused on reducing the U.S. trade deficit, which now exceeds $1 trillion annually.
Why It Matters
Trump has long criticized U.S. trade deals, vowing to impose tariffs of 10%-20% on global imports and 60% on Chinese goods. While the memo does not announce new tariffs, it singles out China, Canada, and Mexico for scrutiny.
It also directs agencies to assess China’s compliance with its 2020 trade agreement and to review the USMCA ahead of a possible renegotiation in 2026.
Market Reaction
The U.S. dollar fell sharply following the news, while stocks surged. The euro, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and Chinese yuan all strengthened. MSCI’s global stock index rose, signaling investor relief.
What’s Next
Although Trump’s trade memo takes a measured approach to tariffs for now, experts believe his administration will still move forward with trade restrictions later. Trade analysts suggest that future tariffs will likely be imposed under Section 232 (national security trade law) or Section 301 (unfair trade practices statute).
Some analysts expect Trump to use these investigations to justify imposing tariffs in the coming months, especially on China and sectors like steel and aluminum.
Bottom Line
Trump’s decision to delay immediate tariffs calms markets but leaves uncertainty about future trade policy. The memo signals a strategic, investigative approach rather than immediate action, though experts anticipate tariffs are still coming.
