ADP reports unexpected job losses as services sector contracts
Private sector hiring in the U.S. unexpectedly contracted by 33,000 jobs in June, according to payroll processor ADP, marking the first monthly decline since March 2023. The figure sharply missed economist expectations of a 100,000-job gain, raising concerns that the economy may be weaker than recent stock market gains suggest.
The ADP report also revised May’s job growth downward, from 37,000 to just 29,000. ADP’s chief economist Nela Richardson cited a “hesitancy to hire” and “reluctance to replace departing workers” as key drivers of the June losses, despite layoffs remaining rare overall.
Service sector takes biggest hit
The June contraction was concentrated in service-providing industries, with professional and business services shedding 56,000 jobs and health and education losing 52,000. Financial services also saw a net loss of 14,000 jobs. In total, service payrolls declined by 66,000 positions.
In contrast, goods-producing sectors added 32,000 jobs, led by manufacturing and mining. The divergence underscores continued weakness in consumer-facing and white-collar roles, while industrial sectors remain resilient.
Regional and firm size breakdown
The Midwest and Western U.S. were the hardest hit, losing 24,000 and 20,000 jobs respectively. The Northeast shed 3,000 jobs, while the South added 13,000 positions, the only region to see net growth.
Smaller firms bore the brunt of the decline, with companies under 20 employees losing 29,000 jobs. In contrast, large firms with over 500 employees added 30,000 jobs, highlighting the uneven impact of the labor pullback across business sizes.
Pay growth slows, market watches government report
Wage growth cooled slightly in June. Job stayers saw their pay increase slow to 4.4% (from 4.5%), while job switchers experienced a dip to 6.8% (from 7%).
The ADP report’s timing comes just ahead of key government data. The U.S. Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report is due Thursday, with expectations for a gain of 110,000 jobs and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3%. Weekly jobless claims are also expected to hit 240,000. With markets closed Friday for Independence Day, Thursday’s figures will carry extra weight.
Despite ADP’s poor showing, the S&P 500 remains up over 4% for the year, bouncing back in Q2 after Trump’s tariff threats rattled investors in April. Still, this surprise drop in hiring could prompt a reassessment of bullish market expectations.
